Is the mind an "intuitive statistician"? Or are humans biased and error-prone when it comes to probabilistic thinking? While researchers in the 1950s and 1960s suggested that people reason approximately in accordance with the laws of probability …
Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our …
Recently, a number of rational theories have been put forward which provide a coherent formal framework for modeling different types of causal inferences, such as prediction, diagnosis, and action planning. A hallmark of these theories is their …
When dealing with a dynamic causal system people may employ a variety of different strategies. One of these strategies is causal learning, that is, learning about the causal structure and parameters of the system acted upon. In two experiments we …
The present paper examines the interplay between causal reasoning and decision making. We use a repeated decision mak- ing paradigm to investigate how people adapt their choice behavior when being confronted with changes in the decision environment. …
Many decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on other events. Such actions allow for mere learning of expected values, but also for causal learning about the structure of the decision context. Whereas most theories of decision making …